In the United States, health care spending is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, reaching a staggering $7.7 trillion by 2032. This represents a substantial $2.9 trillion increase from the previous year. The growth in spending during the 2023-2032 period is expected to be 5.6% annually, which is higher than the anticipated 4.3% annual inflation rate. As a result, health care is forecasted to represent nearly 20% of the GDP by 2032, up from 17.3% in 2022.
One of the reasons for this significant increase in spending is the aftermath of the COVID-19 public health emergency, which led to an increased use of health care services and resulted in a spike in health care spending in 2023 with a growth of 7.5%. It’s worth noting that legislative provisions enacted in response to the pandemic are likely to have an impact on both health care spending and enrollment trends moving forward.
For example, Medicaid enrollment is projected to decrease from 91.2 million in 2023 to 79.4 million in 2025 following the expiration of the continuous enrollment requirement of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020. On the other hand, Medicare is expected to experience the highest ten-year average spending growth rate due to rising enrollment in the program as more people become eligible for coverage through expansion efforts and an aging population.
Out-of-pocket spending is also expected to slow down during
