The Rising Power of China in Central Asia: Shifting the Balance of Power Away from Russia

In recent years, the relationship between Russia and China has strengthened significantly. As part of their efforts to maintain friendly relations, local officials in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, displayed posters of Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the streets. However, beneath this display is a shift in power dynamics with grave consequences for Moscow’s international influence.

The number of cars from Chinese brands such as BYD and Geely on Uzbekistan’s streets is increasing, while the number of Russian Ladas is declining. This change reflects the growing influence of Beijing in Central Asia, where Moscow considers its backyard. Despite their historic friendship, tensions between Xi Jinping and Putin hang over their upcoming meeting in Kazakhstan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

China used Ukraine as an opportunity to weaken traditional Russian spheres of influence in Central Asia and other regions. Beijing’s investments in local economies throughout the region have attracted young workers away from Russia. A Chinese-funded railway promises to connect the region to Europe by bypassing Russian territory. Renewable energy projects supported by China are helping to reduce the region’s dependence on Russian gas.

Sangerbek Kolmatov, a 29-year-old worker at a Chinese factory in central Uzbekistan, said that Chinese money has changed his job prospects dramatically. In 2023, about 1.3 million Uzbeks worked in Russia, according to the United Nations Organization for Migration, down from 1.45 million the previous year due to various reasons but partly because of Chinese-financed alternatives like Kolmatov’s job opportunity at the factory he works at now.

Central Asia was once seen as a wild territory that could be expanded into and resourced from by Tsarist Russia and later Soviet Union. Exploitation and modernization continued under Soviet rule but were guarded against Chinese invasion due to Moscow’s jealously guarded borders.

The power changes in Central Asia have been brewing for years but accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Despite this shift in power dynamics with negative consequences for Moscow’s international influence, it cannot completely replace Russia as elites across Central Asia still tend to view Russia more favorably than China.

However, there are already signs that China is finding its way into new generations of elites through education opportunities like Nudirkson Mahmudov who graduated from an elite high school in Uzbekistan said three out of his 26 classmates went to China to study instead of enrolling at universities in Russia.