The Great AI Debate: Elon Musk’s Warning and Expert Opinions on the Probability of AI Leading to Human Extinction

The potential impact of artificial intelligence on human life is still a topic of debate among experts. While AI has the ability to solve many everyday problems, there are concerns that it may ultimately lead to the extinction of civilization. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, X, and SpaceX, has stated that there is a 10 to 20% chance of AI destroying humanity. However, he also believes that the benefits of AI will outweigh any negative scenarios.

In a seminar titled ‘The Great AI Debate’, Musk compared the development of AI to raising a child, emphasizing the importance of how the technology is nurtured. Despite his concerns about AI, Musk has not revealed the calculations behind his predictions.

Different experts in the field have provided their own estimates for the probability of AI causing humanity’s demise. While some believe the risk is low, others see it as a real possibility. The variable P(doom) ranges from 5% to 50%, with some figures placing the risk even higher.

Some experts estimate that the risk posed by AI is negligible. Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, believes that the risk of AI destroying humanity is only 10%. On the other hand, Jan Leike and Dan Hendrycks offer higher estimates.

The range of predictions highlights the uncertainty surrounding the long-term impact of AI on human civilization. As technology continues to advance at an unprecedented pace, it is important for experts in various fields to work together to ensure that its development and use aligns with ethical and sustainable principles.