The Euro 2024 tournament is set to take place in Germany this June, and the anticipation for the event is palpable. Not just among football fans, but also in the world of technology, where experts are using artificial intelligence (AI) to make predictions about the outcome of the tournament.
A recent analysis by the Zeileis research group has used AI to predict that France is the main favorite to win the trophy, with a probability of 19.2%. This prediction was based on four sophisticated statistical models that took into account a range of factors, including historical performance over the past eight years, expectations and probabilities from 28 betting houses, individual and collective qualifications of players, and additional variables like GDP.
The models were trained with data from matches played between Euro 2021 and now, analyzing goals scored by each team and using the Poisson method to simulate all group stage matches 100,000 times. The simulation results placed England in second place with a 16.7% chance of winning, followed by Germany with 13.7% and Spain with a 12% likelihood of winning.
An interactive graph was used to display how each team’s probabilities varied throughout the tournament, showing that France may start with better odds but was projected to lead towards the end. While AI can provide valuable insights and predictions, it’s important to remember that football is an unpredictable sport where anything can happen on the pitch. So while we may have our favorites based on these predictions, we should keep an open mind and be ready for any surprises that come our way during Euro 2024.
