The Dark Outlook for Argentina’s Labor Market: Job Losses and Unemployment Forecasts

Unemployment spikes as recession brings more bad news

The recession that hit economic activity in the first quarter has had a significant impact on real income, activity, and employment. Data from December to February shows that there has been a loss of 275,000 salaried accounts, with the construction sector being particularly hard hit, losing 57,382 registered jobs in just five months. Additionally, the public sector lost 11,534 positions in four months.

The Ministry of Labor, Employment and Social Security of the Nation reported that there was a loss of 62,920 jobs from the inauguration of Javier Milei until February. Analysts predict that unemployment could reach around 9% by the end of the year as they do not foresee a significant change in this trend. Chief economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina believes that employment recovery will be slow and strong employment growth is unlikely this year.

Some sectors such as mining, hydrocarbons and agriculture have shown growth but are not generating much employment at present. The labor market remains challenging and some economists believe that unemployment may not return to previous levels anytime soon even after the economy begins to recover. This crisis is not just reflected in job losses but also in shifting quality of employment with ongoing debate over labor reform among experts. While some believe reform is crucial for generating genuine employment others argue that employment recovery will only follow an economic recovery. The future of the labor market remains uncertain with significant challenges ahead as the economy continues to struggle.

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