The parliamentary elections are currently underway in France’s overseas territories, marking the beginning of a potential first time for Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant and eurosceptic party to come to power. Polls indicate that the Rassemblement National, led by Le Pen, is likely to gain a majority in the 577-member National Assembly. A high turnout is anticipated, with final opinion polls showing the RN with between 35% and 37% of the vote, compared to 27.5-29% for the leftist New Popular Front and 20-21% for President Macron’s centrist camp.
Macron has called a government meeting for Monday to plan ahead of the second round of voting on July 7. However, his decision to call early elections following the RN’s success in the European Parliament elections has caused uncertainty in France’s economy. In June, the Paris stock exchange experienced its largest monthly decline in two years. The newspaper Le Monde has called for action against the far right, warning against the potential consequences of giving them power.
The election campaign has seen two notable trends: a sense of hope among left-wing and Rassemblement National supporters that change is possible and fear and terror caused by both parties have had a negative impact on voters. Support for Macron’s centrist camp has decreased during this campaign leading left-wing parties to form the New Popular Front in an effort to combat far right rise. Le Pen’s party has also seen an increase in support as analysts acknowledge her efforts towards improving party image. If it secures an absolute majority tensions could arise between them and Macron who has made it clear he plans to remain in office until 2027
