The International Monetary Fund has forecasted that the global economy will grow by nearly 6% this year, thanks to strong demand and direct investment from abroad, as well as supportive policies. According to Mr. Paulo Medas, Head of the Vietnam team of the IMF, the Vietnamese economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2023 despite facing challenges such as a sharp decline in exports and financial stress. However, experts predict that the economy will gradually recover from the end of 2023, supported by positive exports, tourism, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
Inflation is expected to fluctuate around the State Bank’s target level of 4-4.5% this year, with exchange rate pressures potentially impacting domestic inflation under loose monetary conditions. Fiscal policy is also supporting economic growth in 2024, with efforts to boost public sector wages and public investment. Experts recommend strengthening fiscal management and mobilizing budget revenue to face future challenges.
The regulatory agency has made important legal advances this year, particularly in the banking sector and real estate market. Amendments to laws around credit institutions and real estate aim to resolve legal bottlenecks and promote a healthy corporate bond market. Experts recommend strengthening supervision and management of financial institutions, restructuring weak real estate development enterprises, and increasing investment in infrastructure to support economic growth.
Overall, while risks remain high, particularly in terms of weakening exports, global geopolitical tensions, and domestic demand growth, experts believe that with supportive policies in place
