In a recent poll released on Sunday, it was revealed that the far-right National Regroupment (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has secured first place in the polls and is not far from securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly. According to the survey for Sunday Tribune and BFMTV, the RN and its right-wing allies would achieve 36% of the votes in the first round on June 30, compared to 27% for the left-wing New Popular Front.
The election matchups have not been defined yet, so seat projections are difficult to determine before the first round. However, based on this survey, it seems that the RN and its allies could win between 250-280 deputies, which is close to the absolute majority of 289. The left alliance is expected to secure 150-170 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s bloc may fall to 90-110 deputies and the conservative Republicans (LR) to 35-45. Other smaller formations may have around 10-12 seats.
Another interesting aspect of this survey is that it predicts a significant increase in voter participation, with about 60% of those surveyed stating that they will vote. This is a significant increase compared to previous elections where participation was low. For example, in the European elections of May 26th – June 3rd of last year, participation was at only 51.49%, while in July’s legislative elections it was only at about 47.5%.
Overall, these poll results suggest that there will be a strong turnout for France’s upcoming parliamentary elections on June 30th as well as an increase in voter participation rates compared to previous years.
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