Rise in Packaging Demand Forecasts End of US Cardboard Box Recession: Expert Insights

According to recent surveys conducted by Bank of America Global Research, the packaging industry is experiencing a shift in its outlook. Independent box makers surveyed have seen their growth outlooks increase from 0.6% to over 3%, indicating significant progress. This growth is partly driven by inflation but is also influenced by growing demand expectations. In the next six to twelve months, 62% of respondents anticipate demand to be either “better” or “much better,” compared to 39% in April.

The rise in packaging prices could potentially end America’s cardboard box recession, which has been negative since the second half of 2022. This recessionary indicator related to consumer spending has been a concern for analysts and economists alike, but new data suggests that the packaging industry is set for growth in the upcoming quarters. This news is positive for the broader economy as it eliminates a recessionary indicator related to consumer spending.

Last year saw a significant drop in demand for cardboard packaging, raising concerns about a major pullback in consumer spending. Charles Schwab even referred to it as a “cardboard-box recession,” warning of potential impacts on labor markets and equities. However, recent data shows that consumer spending remains resilient and stocks have hit record highs, indicating that the economy and markets have exceeded expectations in recent months.

Overall, the data suggests that the packaging industry is set for growth, with prices set to rise and demand expected to increase. This shift could have broader positive implications for the economy, potentially leading to a more stable and prosperous market environment.