The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has reported positive trends in global trade for the first half of 2024. Goods trade saw a 1% increase in the first quarter of the year, while services trade grew by 1.5% for the same period. In its latest monthly review, UNCTAD projected a 2% growth in world trade for the first half of 2024, which is expected to add $250 billion to goods trade and $100 billion to services trade.
If the positive trends continue, global trade in 2024 is forecasted to reach nearly $32 trillion, although it is unlikely to exceed the record level set in 2022. The organization highlighted growing trade in developing countries as well as between countries in the Global South, driven by increased exports from China, India, and the United States. However, Europe and Africa did not see an increase in exports during the first quarter of 2024.
UNCTAD emphasized strong demand for global trade in green energy sectors and artificial intelligence products compared to other sectors. The organization maintains a positive outlook for 2024 amidst geopolitical issues and industrial policies reshaping global trade patterns. Inflation remains below 2% in the first half of 2024, and improving economic growth prospects suggest an easing of downward macroeconomic trends seen in 2023.
There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States later in the year, which could weaken the dollar and boost global trade. However, the outlook for global trade in 2024 remains vulnerable to negative and geopolitical developments, including tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies that could significantly impact trade.
Furthermore, UNCTAD noted that there are concerns about rising protectionism and increasing use of tariffs by major trading powers such as China and Japan could negatively affect global commerce.
Overall, while there are some promising signs for global trade growth this year
