On Friday, during the National Bank’s presentation of its half-year outlook, Governor Wunsch expressed regret that the housing market issue is not being given sufficient attention in election discourse. Despite the significant impact that policy can have on it, the Belgian housing market is not performing as well as expected. Chief economist Geert Langenus pointed out that there has been a decline in housing investments for three consecutive quarters due to expensive building materials and increased mortgage interest rates. The National Bank now predicts that a real recovery in housing investments will only occur in 2026, emphasizing the urgent need for more housing due to affordability issues and an expected increase in the number of families in the coming years.
The National Bank called for an increase in the supply of housing, highlighting that government measures such as increasing social housing or adjusting regulations can play a crucial role. They also provided feedback on renovation obligations, suggesting alternatives such as solar panels and heat pumps to achieve climate targets. The governor highlighted the high cost of housing in other regions and called for a debate on the impact of policy decisions on housing prices.
In terms of economic forecasts, the National Bank’s projections for GDP growth, business investments, government investments, household consumption, and inflation were largely consistent with previous estimates. However, they expect steady economic growth with a slight acceleration in 2026. The National Bank noted that business investments are moderating and government investments are declining post-elections, while net exports are expected to make a less negative contribution. Household consumption is projected to remain stable with a slight decline in savings rate. Wage moderation and limited job creation are also factors taken into account in these forecasts. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease over time.
Overall, the National Bank’s outlook highlights both challenges and opportunities facing Belgium’s economy while underscoring the importance of policy decisions when it comes to key economic indicators like housing investments and inflation
