India is set to hold its general elections, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi can boast about the world’s largest election taking place in the fastest-growing major economy. With a GDP of $3.5 trillion, India now ranks as the fifth-largest economy globally, surpassing its former colonial ruler, Britain. The government has invested heavily in infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, ports, energy, and digital infrastructure, attracting multinational companies to consider India as a key element in their “China plus one” strategy.
The economic momentum is expected to strengthen Mr. Modi’s chances of securing a third term in office. Projections suggest that India’s GDP may reach $6 trillion by the end of his potential third term, solidifying its position as the third-largest economy in the world. However, India has a history of premature triumphalism, with past moments of optimism fading due to economic challenges.
Despite its impressive GDP growth, India faces significant obstacles such as underemployment and a relatively small labor force compared to its population size. Private sector investment remains lower than pre-2008 global financial crisis levels, and income per person is only a fraction of China’s. Mr. Modi’s economic record is a mix of successes and failures, prompting further scrutiny.
To understand India’s complex economic journey and assess Mr. Modi’s economic policies, six books are recommended: “India Unbound” by Amartya Sen,” “Capital at Risk” by Martin Wolf,” “Growth vs Development” by Amartya Sen,” “The New Road Ahead” by Pankaj Kapur,” “The Great Indian Slowdown” by Aniruddha Bahal,” and “India After Gandhi” by Ramachandra Guha.” These books provide valuable insights into India’s challenges and possible pathways for sustainable economic growth.
