From Troubled Waters to the Crossroads: The Unpredictable Future of Trump’s Middle East Policy

During his presidency, Trump aimed to withdraw the United States from Middle Eastern wars but found himself entangled in the region. The possibility of a second term for Trump brings both relief to old allies and uncertainty. Trump was known for his pro-Israel policies, exemplified by the “Century Plan” for peace in the Middle East that favored Israel. However, recent statements during the election campaign regarding Israel and the Gaza war have been contradictory. While attacking Biden for withholding arms from Israel, Trump also expressed concerns about Israel losing international support due to the conflict.

Trump’s campaign rhetoric, including a rally where supporters chanted “Genocide Joe,” reflects the confusion surrounding his stance on Israel. Despite hopes of Israel’s political right for Trump’s return, doubts remain about his consistent support for the country. His administration’s approach to Israel and the Palestinian conflict may vary based on advice received and government team composition.

In the Gulf region, Trump’s relationships with leaders like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia remain crucial. The Gulf states, wary of Iran, hope for a tougher stance against Tehran in a potential second term for Trump. However, conflicts may arise over issues like normalization with Israel and economic policies that could strain relations with petrostates.

In terms of Iran, Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy has had significant implications, including withdrawing from the nuclear agreement and imposing sanctions. If re-elected, he is likely to maintain a tough stance towards Iran but may impose less sanctions while pressuring other countries to sever trade ties with Tehran. A military conflict with Iran seems unlikely given domestic opposition and international constraints.

The presence of American troops in Iraq and Syria has been a contentious issue; Trump promised to end “endless wars.” The decision to withdraw troops from Syria in 2019 led to criticism and destabilization in the region. If re-elected, he may revisit troop presence in the Middle East while balancing fighting terrorism with containing Iran’s influence.

Overall, Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East remains complex and unpredictable; it has implications for regional stability and international relations. His potential re-election could lead to shifts in various aspects of US involvement in the region; it would impact allies and adversaries alike