In recent years, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has garnered significant attention in the Middle East, while the ongoing tension between Israel and Hezbollah remains a simmering threat. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel, resulting in casualties and hostages. The Israeli army responded with a campaign in the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Lebanese Hezbollah forces have been engaging in daily skirmishes with the Israeli army across the border since then. Hezbollah announced these attacks to show solidarity with people in the Gaza Strip, leading to widespread violence and evacuations of tens of thousands of people on both sides. The fighting at the Israel-Lebanon border has escalated in recent times, with Hezbollah using precision weapons to conduct raids deep within Israeli territory.
Despite warnings from Israeli leaders that Lebanon could face a fate similar to Gaza if Hezbollah opens a new front targeting the country, experts believe that a total war is unlikely due to long-standing “hidden rules” between Israel and Hezbollah dating back nearly three decades. These unspoken rules have played a crucial role in de-escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah by creating mutual boundaries that should not be crossed.
The roots of this conflict go back to the 1980s when Hezbollah was formed to counter Israeli occupation and influence in the region. However, informal talks have continued over time, allowing both sides to maintain their positions without resorting to full-scale warfare. While there are no formal agreements or treaties governing these interactions, both sides recognize that respecting each other’s boundaries is essential for maintaining peace and stability in the region.
Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel have aimed to show solidarity with Hamas while maintaining balance between resistance and avoiding full-scale warfare. By utilizing these rules of engagement, they can present themselves as resistance forces while preventing a scenario that could jeopardize their position in the region. This strategy has proven beneficial for Hezbollah as it allows them to damage Israel’s strong international image while achieving their goals at a manageable cost.
