Since the beginning of Javier Milei’s administration, the Central Bank has faced challenges in accumulating reserves. Despite initially seeing this as a positive factor for exchange stability and stock market growth, recent developments have caused concern. With only five trading days left in June, the Central Bank has only managed to accumulate US$25 million in purchases, which is far below its target.
One of the main factors contributing to this slowdown is the export dollar, which is set to increase in the second half of the year. The blend of the dollar that exports are settled in, which includes an 80% official exchange rate and 20% cash with liqui, means that some dollars from exporters are not going directly to the Central Bank. This complicates efforts to add to reserves.
According to data from the Capital Foundation, gross reserves have remained stagnant at around US$28.9 billion for the past two months. Despite a significant increase in net profits of US$9.7 billion since December, reserves remain negative by US$1.5 billion. The blend dollar, scheduled to end soon, further complicates matters for the Central Bank.
Economists like Salvador Vitelli and Amilcar Collante argue that challenges in reserve accumulation are linked to increased import payments, limited export liquidations, and the shift of some imports to the CCL dollar. They emphasize that if these factors continue unchecked, it will be difficult for the Central Bank to lift exchange restrictions and stabilize the economy.
To address these challenges and ensure economic stability moving forward
