According to a recent Reuters poll, Argentina’s economic activity index is projected to have declined by 6.9% year-on-year in March. This marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction and the deepest drop since 2020. The survey of 13 local analysts revealed that the index likely fell by 7.2% in March compared to the previous month, with year-on-year contraction estimates ranging from 4% to 10.3%.
Despite the decline in sectors related to domestic consumption, industry, and construction, which continues to worsen, sectors like mining and agriculture are experiencing growth. For example, the industrial production indicator in Argentina showed a 21.2% year-on-year slowdown in March based on government data.
Looking ahead, economists are cautiously optimistic about the coming months but anticipate a gradual recovery rather than a rapid rebound in economic activity in the first half of the year. Concerns about inflation and risks related to the foreign exchange market continue to weigh on their outlook for the economy. Official figures from INDEC will be released on Wednesday, providing a clearer picture of the current economic situation in Argentina.
