The latest Reuters poll suggests that Argentina’s economic activity index is expected to have decreased by 6.9% year-on-year in March, marking the deepest decline since 2020 and the fifth consecutive monthly contraction. This is according to a survey of 13 local analysts who also estimate that the index fell by an estimated 7.2% in March compared to February, with contraction estimates ranging from 4% to 10.3%.
Economist Pablo Besmedrisnik from consulting firm Invenomica noted that the decline in sectors related to domestic consumption, industry, and construction continues to worsen. However, there are some sectors like mining and agriculture showing growth. The country’s industrial production indicator also revealed a significant 21.2% decrease year-on-year in March as per government data.
Despite the challenging economic conditions, economists are cautiously optimistic about a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Federico Gonzalez Rouco, an economist at Empiria Consultores, stated that while they do not anticipate a rapid recovery in activity for the first half of the year, there are signs of inflation deceleration. However, risks related to the foreign exchange market continue to pose challenges.
According to official figures from INDEC, which will be released on Wednesday, these findings will provide further insight into Argentina’s economic performance during this period of uncertainty and help inform policymakers’ decisions moving forward.
